13th general elections: what hangs in the balance

The March 2008 elections saw Malaysia's new opposition pact sweep five of 12 state governments being contested, immediately dismantling the ruling Barisan Nasional's (National Front) historical dominance.

Although the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) had governed the Malay belt state of Kelantan for 18 years by then, it was largely considered an aberration rather than the norm, with the dominant United Malays National Organisation (Umno) coming within one seat of reclaiming the state in 2004.

Both Barisan and Pakatan Rakyat (People's Pact) will tussle for federal power in a general election that must be called within a year, but most observers see the incumbents keeping Putrajaya despite record losses in 2008. Then a loose electoral pact, the tripartite opposition won 82 federal seats and denied Barisan its customary two-thirds of Parliament.

While the general pattern over 16 by-elections held since March 2008 indicate that loyalties in the multiethnic country are largely unchanged, slight shifts are likely to result in several states flipping over come the 13th General Election.

In the highly-racialised political landscape of the peninsular, at least four states hang in the balance after four years of constant politicking in the majority Malay-Muslim country of 28 million.

While Sabah and Sarawak in Borneo remained "fixed deposits" for Barisan, which lost just two federal seats there, the opposition edged the popular vote in the peninsular in the last election.

The stiff contest in the peninsular saw Pakatan forming government in Perak by a razor-thin majority of three in the 59-member legislature but taking less than half the parliamentary seats available.

Less than a year into its administration, three assemblymen defected, allowing Barisan to reclaim the state but only after a protracted constitutional crisis that called into question the powers of the monarch and the assembly to manage its own affairs.

Although the move angered many residents in the state, a poll conducted last year by the Democratic Action Party (DAP), the largest opposition party there, found that the sentiment has since subsided.

The February 2009 takeover of Perak also fuelled talk that both Selangor and Kedah would follow suit. Pakatan's 36-20 majority in Selangor has made that unlikely despite internal conflict within the People's Justice Party (PKR) in the state and one assemblyman eventually defecting.

Still, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has made Selangor a key target for the general elections, appointing himself Barisan chief there and calling on the Umno-led coalition to retake the country's richest state by any means possible.

With the state government coming under fire from Malay hardliners over allegations that its representatives do not respect Islam and allow Christians to convert Muslims freely, the community appears likely to swing away from Pakatan and whittle down its majority.

Pakatan also held a 22-14 majority in Kedah after Election 2008, but Datuk Seri Azizan Abu Bakar's administration has constantly been rocked by controversy, resulting in at least four changes to his executive council (i.e., a state-level Cabinet) since taking power.

The state PAS chief recently lost the support of his two deputies who refused to rejoin the executive council this year, leaving just eight out of a maximum 10 'excos' at the swearing in on February 28.

Umno-owned media are now convinced Azizan will not last the distance and will be toppled either internally or otherwise.

But it is not just states won by Pakatan that hang in the balance. Negeri Sembilan, which only has a slight Malay majority, was won by Barisan with a six-seat majority in 2008.

Pakatan leaders there have already targeted four seats which need just a five per cent swing for it to claim majority in the state.

Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mohamad Hassan's position is also said to be shaky with several leaders in the state jockeying to replace him, including his predecessor Tan Sri Isa Samad, who won a by-election in the state after serving a three-year suspension by Umno for money politics.

Jerome Martin is a political analyst and humourist. Some might say both are the same. But he finds that humour can in fact be used to reveal the truth.